The Laffey factor Seemingly intent on challenging Chafee for his senate seat, the Cranston mayor risks coming up short BY IAN DONNIS

holding forth from the East Providence studio of WPRO (630 AM), Cranston Mayor Stephen F. Laffey is in his element on a recent Friday morning, gliding effortlessly between his various roles as a municipal official and the self-styled marshal of a statewide Republican insurgency. By mid-day, the scene shifts to the mayor’s annual picnic at the Cranston Multi-Purpose Center. Laffey, who repeatedly cites how he moved the event indoors to prevent the late August sun from a taking a toll on the hundreds of elderly guests, is received like a glittering celebrity.

Even though he remains mum about his intentions, Laffey’s ability to wield an outsized influence extends to the early stages of the 2006 campaign for the seat held by US Senator Lincoln Chafee. Conservatives from Washington County to Washington, DC, are salivating about the prospect of a challenge on the right to the moderate and idiosyncratic Chafee. Not coincidentally, Laffey, 43, has shown little hesitation to force confrontation within the Rhode Island Republican Party, citing a need to wrest it from "the old Yankee elite." The latest example is how National Republican Committeeman Robert Manning of Charlestown — whose ascent into that post was engineered by Laffey last year — recently blocked a $500,000 contribution from the Republican National Committee to the Rhode Island GOP that would have, in part, aided Chafee’s campaign.

Despite growing murmurs, the Laffey camp refuses to show its hand about the Senate race — a sharp contrast to the mayor’s predilection for talking practically non-stop. After the Evans-Novak Political Report, a subscription-only political newsletter in Washington, DC, last week reported that he will announce his campaign in mid-September, spokeswoman Robin Muksian-Schutt said, "There’s nothing official on our end about that. There is no candidacy. There is no campaign right now, nothing like that." Asked why the newsletter would report a forthcoming announcement, she said, "You got me. We all know that people like to put things out there."

If anyone’s fervently hoping for a Laffey campaign, it’s Matthew A. Brown and Sheldon Whitehouse, the two Democratic contenders in the 2006 Senate race. Left to their own devices, the two Democrats run the risk of annihilating each other, as was the case with Richard Licht and Robert Weygand in 2000, allowing Chafee to emerge unscathed for the general election. A primary bid by Laffey, on the other hand, would make life a lot more complicated for Chafee, even if he ultimately proved a primary victor — and there’s no guarantee of that. As Bill Lynch, chairman of the Rhode Island Democratic Party, observes, "I can see in my own mind a Laffey-Chafee primary that would be very volatile, very expensive, and that may well attract a lot of independent voters who would not typically get enthused about a Republican primary."

The Republican establishment has coalesced behind Chafee, viewing him as the best chance to keep one of Rhode Island’s Senate seats in the GOP column, and the senator is counting on his moderate profile — and perhaps his name — to keep him in office. Several local officials have nonetheless been less than enthusiastic in their public statements. Governor Donald L. Carcieri, something of an ideological soul brother to Laffey, told WJAR-TV’s Jim Taricani in July, for example, "We’ve got a sitting senator, Republican senator, and if he chooses to run against Linc Chafee, I can’t take sides in that." Similarly, Patricia Morgan, chairwoman of the Rhode Island Republican Party, while citing "the strong support" for Chafee of the White House, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, and the local party, added, "right now, I think we’re supporting him. He’s the only declared candidate."

One senses that Laffey, who has enjoyed a meteoric rise from political obscurity since winning the Cranston mayor’s office in 2002, may be having his most fun ever.

After overcoming a somewhat difficult childhood to enjoy success in the financial field in Tennessee, Laffey’s decision to return home — which he has attributed to divine guidance — has offered a steadily broader statewide platform.

Like Buddy Cianci, the Cranston mayor is quick and often the smartest person in the room. He’s good at picking winning fights, and framing arguments in his favor.

He delights in noting how the state Board of Elections backed down after banishing him from what was his weekly — now monthly — gig at WPRO. "They’re not very good chess players," says Laffey, who found a sympathetic audience when he took the case to the US Appeals Court. "It was painfully embarrassing to watch the whole process." (Not that the mayor has any shame in benefiting from the kind of free publicity that other incumbent officeholders would relish.) (Disclosure: I am a weekly, unpaid guest on WPRO’s Dan Yorke Show.)

Soon, though — and a decision has no doubt already been made — Laffey will have to either step up or step back when it comes to gunning for Lincoln Chafee. And even if he could knock off an incumbent senator in the GOP primary — hardly a sure thing — Laffey would face a serious risk of losing the general election to a Democrat. As far as Laffey’s star, "I don’t think it’s rising as much as people think," says Maureen Moakley, chairwoman of the political science department at the University of Rhode Island, who expects independent voters to lean toward Chafee. "He’s got to think very carefully about taking a risk to do this."