The Laffey factor (continued)

TARGETING CHAFEE

The 2000 election proved a cakewalk for Lincoln Chafee, thanks to the bitter battle between the Democrats, and the goodwill that attached to the Republican, who had been appointed to fill the unexpired term of his father after John Chafee died in 1999. This time, though, a challenge by Laffey could pose a season of discontent for Chafee. Even if the incumbent emerged triumphant, the possible general election pairing with Sheldon Whitehouse would pose a certified Rhode Island death match in which Democrats could persuasively cite the need to increase their votes (currently 45-55) in the Republican-controlled Senate.

For his part, Chafee is trying to take the matter in stride, recalling how conservative Tom Post, who ran unsuccessfully for a town council seat, proceeded to attract more than 30 percent of the vote while challenging his father in 1994. "I really separate Mayor Laffey from the dynamics," Chafee says. "It’s more just a challenge in the primary from the right, and it really doesn’t matter who it is. I had to prepare for it. My father had it . . . There’s always going to be difficulty in a Republican primary for a moderate."

The difference, now, though, is that conservatives are far more ascendant in Washington, running the White House, Congress, and the think tanks, than when Newt Gingrich piloted his "Contract with America" campaign 11 years ago, with considerable short-term success. The impact can be seen in how, as the Providence Journal’s Scott MacKay and Mark Arsenault reported on August 21, conservatives like Chuck Muth of Maryland, president of a political organization called Citizens Outreach, argue in favor of knocking off Chafee in a primary, even if a Democrat ultimately claims the Senate seat, to send a message to other moderates.

As fiscal conservatives who have enjoyed mayoral success in the traditional Democratic bastions of Warwick and Cranston, respectively, Chafee and Laffey have a few things in common. For the most part, though, Chafee is among a handful of moderate Republicans still in the Senate, while Laffey, although he makes steady use of populist rhetoric, seems quite comfortable with the orthodoxy of the White House. The Cranston mayor, for example, backed the decision to go to war in Iraq, he describes the conflict as an important part of the war on terror, and he is inclined to oppose abortion rights. Chafee, on the other hand, was the only Senate Republican to vote against the war, and he supports abortion rights (and has already won the endorsement of the National Abortion Rights Action League). Although his candor — repeatedly explaining, for example, his intention to vote last year for George H.W. Bush instead of the current president — is maddening to conservatives, it wins considerable support among independents and Democrats.

Laffey and Chafee are keenly aware that the state’s 350,000 independents, the largest bloc of voters in Rhode Island, will play a decisive role in the primary, particularly because of the miniscule number of Republicans in the state.

Asked about his campaign message, Chafee says, "First of all, I’m working hard to bring my party back to the center." He cites value in having at least one of Rhode Island’s four elected federal officials from the ruling party, and points to the favorable return to the state for every dollar collected in federal gas taxes as evidence of his ability to deliver. Laffey, meanwhile, during the last hour of his WPRO broadcast on August 26, talked up the schism in the Rhode Island Republican Party, citing the need to embrace immigrants and other nontraditional elements to challenge the state’s longstanding Democratic hegemony.

In many ways, a fight between the two men — like the recent dispute over the $500,000 from the Republican National Committee — represents a battle for the soul of the Rhode Island GOP.

Manning’s move to block the donation to the state party seems an instance of power politics. Laffey, after all, led the June 2004 effort to knock out former Cranston mayor Michael Traficante as Republican National Committeeman, making the move to replace him with Manning after allies realized that Traficante, a longtime GOP activist, had disaffiliated from the party. Manning, however, says he declined to sign off on the $500,000 from the national party, "Because I don’t believe that the national party bosses should be dictating the choices that are available to Rhode Island voters in a primary." Asked if he favors a particular person in the Senate race, Manning’s response is, "My job is to preserve choice for Rhode Island voters in the primary."

Noting that the 2006 general election remains 14 months away, Manning calls the blocked donation from the RNC a temporary matter, and he describes the impact as, "in practical terms, not much." With as-yet-unannounced GOP candidates for general office and other high-profile races expected to unveil their campaigns in the next three or so weeks, "We’ll be dealing with a much more defined landscape," Manning says. "The party will be able to reassess its options at that time." The dispute, which received front-page coverage in the ProJo, is "also serving to raise the visibility of the Rhode Island Republican Party," he says. After long suffering from a lack of visibility, "public dialogue like this is actually quite beneficial."

Not surprisingly, former lieutenant governor Bernard Jackvony, a Traficante ally and Laffey critic, takes a different view. The dispute over the $500,000 poses a concern, he says, adding that competitive primaries involving a Republican incumbent can hurt the GOP. Ultimately, says Jackvony, "The rank and file of our party are going to ask a very simple question: what good is it to turn down $500,000 of money used to identify voters and people to come out and vote for Republicans? What good is that going to accomplish for the party as a whole? It may file into someone’s strategy," he says, in a thinly veiled swipe at Laffey, but it could have an adverse effect for candidates for local races and general offices. "They’re going to say, ‘What the hell is Rob Manning doing?’ "

IRRESISTIBLE LURE

For a purported non-candidate, Laffey can’t resist bringing up stuff related to the Senate race.

During an off-air moment at WPRO, for example, he disparages the dispute over the $500,000 from the Republican National Committee as "so inside baseball" and "just power politics by the RNC."

"When I go to the seniors today, no one’s going to ask me about Rule 11," he says, referring to the requirement that three top state party officials approve the donation. Instead, he says, "They’ll talk about the baby" — his fifth child, three-week-old Jessica Isabel.

Describing how local power brokers tried to tell him he couldn’t run for mayor when he returned to Cranston after a successful career in finance in Tennessee, Laffey updates the theme to the persistent questions about his campaign plans: "The idea that I need to make a decision around someone else’s timetable is another bizarre thing," he says. "I thought that the filing deadline is in June."

Darrell West, a professor of political science at Brown University, believes Laffey will run against Chafee, and he predicts a competitive race, in part because of the small turnout typical of Republican primaries in Rhode Island. If Laffey were to win, "I think it will be tough for Laffey in the general election, just because of his conservative political views," West adds.

As it stands, various Republicans have been trying to divert Laffey from a Senate run. Jeff Deckman, executive director of the Rhode Island Republican Party, has tried to interest him in running for lieutenant governor. In an interview last month with the Cranston Herald, Deckman reasoned that Laffey would be well positioned to run for no less an office than the presidency if he went for LG in 2004 and succeeded Carcieri for two terms starting in 2008.

As the Phoenix reported in July, the Washington Times sparked talk of a connection between Chafee and White House guru Karl Rove when it reported that Rove and other Republicans had tried to dissuade Laffey from challenging the incumbent. A Chafee spokesman called the reports "totally erroneous," although it was noted that Laffey had cited conversations with Elizabeth Dole and Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman (see "Dems pounce on report of a Rove-Chafee connection," This just in, July 29.)

Around the same time, WJAR-TV’s Jim Taricani reported that Laffey offered to drop from the Senate race in exchange for the presidency of the University of Rhode Island. "Nothing to it," Laffey says of the report, saying he had only talked more broadly with Carcieri about seeking some sort of meaningful assignment.

Despite these efforts and conversations, all indications are that Laffey remains undeterred from pursuing a Senate bid.

Back on the air at WPRO on August 26, Laffey receives a steady stream of encouragement. Even Joe the Barber of Pawtucket, a longtime Democratic operative and ally of former House Speaker John Harwood, calls to lend some backing.

Later, at the lunch for Cranston seniors, a plaque in the corner, noting how Edward DiPrete was mayor when the building was dedicated in 1981, speaks to the subsequent rise and fall of another local mayor. Working the crowd with two of his children, nine-year-old Sam and eight-year-old Sarah not far away, Laffey exudes the optimism and restless energy of a candidate. Expressing his thanks for having represented the residents for a few years, he cites his hope to do so "for a couple more" — although the question of from which office lingers in the air.

Ian Donnis can be reached at idonnis[a]phx.com.