Can Carcieri be beat?(continued)

The charm factor

Although serving as the mystery guest during the Providence Newspaper Guild’s annual Follies is a cherished ritual for Rhode Island politicians, Fogarty perhaps had something to prove inFebruary when, surrounded by several gyrating babes and wearing a party helmet bearing two containers of milk, he gamely played along as part of a "Fogarty goes wild" skit. In fact, as those who attended a roast of the Phoenix’s Phillipe & Jorge a few years ago at the Federal Reserve can attest, Fogarty has surprisingly good comedic timing.

Still, for all of his presumed skill in retail politics, the somewhat staid image of the lieutenant governor — who is easily caricatured because of his receding hairline and lengthy forehead — could represent one of his primary challenges when it comes to challenging the avuncular Carcieri. Fogarty brushes aside such concerns, expressing confidence in the ability of voters to look past personalities, and asserting, "In the end, substance wins."

The lieutenant governor, who lacks his rival’s personal wealth, also faces a hurdle in building a similarly large multi-million dollar war chest, although he says he’ll have more than enough to run an effective campaign. The importance of campaign finance notwithstanding, Myrth York in 2002 became the latest Rhode Island gubernatorial candidate to outspend a more successful rival.

The expected Democratic lines of attack against Carcieri are fairly predictable: that he lacks a record of tangible accomplishment and is an affluent Bush acolyte distanced from the concerns of more typical Rhode Islanders. Critics may also hit on the length of time it took the governor to settle an ethics charge against him for accepting luxury box tickets from Fleet Bank to take in a New England Patriots game in December 2003. For his part, Carcieri, who touched off the issue when he disclosed his acceptance of the tickets, citing it as part of an effort to save Rhode Island jobs, and subsequently reimbursed Fleet, believes that he did nothing wrong.

If Fogarty seems somewhat less willing to join the rhetorical battle at this early stage in the game, he might also be harder to criticize when things heat up. Although Republicans will likely try to tie him to the General Assembly and the ever-popular "special interests," the mild-mannered lieutenant governor’s advocacy on issues like elder care, health-care, habitat restoration, and help for National Guardsmen serving in Iraq seems to offer little to rap. A critic of Rhode Island’s reliance on gambling revenue, he favors putting the casino issue to voters — a stance that might inspire some sympathetic support from pro-casino forces. At the same time, Carcieri’s campaign may well invest more initial energy in promoting its chief asset — the generally well-liked governor and his guiding philosophy — than in ripping the other guy.

A number of wild cards could influence the election, including the relative strength of the Democratic and Republican slates of general officers. An early candidate for lieutenant governor, state Senator Elizabeth Roberts (D-Cranston), a well-regarded legislator with a significant record on health-care, could bring some vitality and geographic balance to the Democratic ticket, for example. Another lingering question is whether Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey will enter the race for Lincoln Chafee’s Senate seat or run for treasurer or lieutenant governor. Laffey, a polarizing figure, would bring energy to the GOP slate, although not without a certain risk for Republicans.

Rhode Island’s 2006 gubernatorial contest remains more than 17 months away — an eternity in politics — and things could happen between now and then that will change the race in unexpected ways. Wielding impressively supple political skills, Carcieri was a relatively unknown when he came out of left field to easily outpace former general treasurer James Bennett in the 2002 GOP primary. As it stands, Fogarty is already more of a known quantity, although his image as a candidate will have to substantially grow if he hopes to win this campaign.

Ian Donnis can be reached at idonnis[a]phx.com.