Baby steps (continued)

Democratic insiders, though, point to many of the Republican legislative challengers as little more than token candidates. In some respects, elections for the General Assembly might be largely a game of inside baseball. In Cranston, for example, where Mayor Stephen P. Laffey, a rising star in state politics, scored a resounding win over his Republican rival during the September primary, much interest is focused on how Representative Frank A. Montanaro (D-Cranston) fares against Republican challenger Jim Davey. Montanaro is the son of Frank J. Montanaro, a leader of the state public-employee unions that unsuccessfully tried to neutralize Laffey in the primary, and the Cranston mayor has lent his energetic support to the GOP insurgent.

(Laffey has been nonchalant about his political plans, although speculation has him challenging US Senator Lincoln Chafee in a Republican primary in 2006. There have been suggestions that US Representative Patrick J. Kennedy, who is being challenged for the second time by former Navy SEAL David Rogers, might also run for the Senate seat.)

When it comes to the General Assembly, though, Republicans seem hard-pressed to match the energy and charisma of the Cranston mayor. As Bill Lynch puts it, "They’ve got nowhere to go but up. I don’t expect any significant changes. They’re working very hard, but so are we, which is not unusual."

Without an unexpected degree of change, Carcieri, whose budget vetoes have been overrode twice in the last two years, can expect to remain at steady loggerheads with the General Assembly. Asked what he expects from the legislative relationship with the governor in the new session, Senate President Joseph A. Montalbano says, "Any governor that wants to have a legacy needs to develop and maintain a relationship with the General Assembly. For me, that translates into a working relationship between the speaker, the governor, and myself. [Carcieri’s] tone is more of that of a CEO who is going to dictate and expect the speaker and the Senate president to fall into line. Our experience is that everything up there is give and take. We’re willing to work to work with him, but we’re not willing to be dictated to."

Rhode Island’s political culture hasn’t been without some seismic shifts in recent years. Harwood’s fall as speaker ended related blockage in the House that kept separation of powers legislation — a more evenly divided balance between the state’s executive, legislative, and judicial branches — from moving forward. Some observers also point to Carcieri and Laffey, and their challenge of entitlements and public-employee unions, in citing the dawn of a new political culture in Rhode Island.

It’s worth noting, though, that one of the likely big changes of this election season — the anticipated passage by voters of Question One, which will set separation of powers in motion — will do little to disadvantage legislative Democrats. The implementation of separation of powers would have positive effects, in part by eliminating the conflicts that can result when legislators appoint their colleagues to a host of boards and commissions, like the Lottery Commission. But the necessary creation for a new oversight apparatus also offers an opportunity for lawmakers to watchdog on issues of concern — like the recently publicized problems facing some local nursing homes. As Maureen Moakley, chairwoman of the political science department at the University of Rhode Island, says, "They’re in a position now to be good guys, and if they take advantage of it, it could really change the dynamic up there."

Perhaps because it could offer a more open-ended chance for change, some proponents — including Carcieri and the Providence Journal — are encouraging support for Question Two, which would bring about a constitutional convention. A coalition of groups, including Common Cause of Rhode Island, the local affiliate of the American Civil Liberties Union, and others, however, is recommending against passing the measure, contending that it represents more of an opportunity for mischief than anything else.

Yet in sharp contrast to the second very closely contested presidential election in four years, Rhode Island remains a place where the political status quo seems almost locked in a state of suspended animation, the disappearance from the scene of Buddy Cianci notwithstanding. We’ve got a Republican governor, and an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature, and some ethics scandals in the not so distant past. We’ve got a Chafee in the Senate and a bunch of other Democratic officeholders likely to enjoy long tenures. The prospect of a casino was a topic of hot discussion for much of the year, and it will probably be the same in 2005.

Perhaps one day 2004 will be seen as the first step of a long journey that brought Rhode Island Republicans to the promised land, but don’t count on it. For the time being in the local political culture, the more things change, the more they remain the same.

Ian Donnis can be reached at idonnis[a]phx.com.