October surprises Hollywood's annual rise and fall BY PETER KEOUGH

As a political season, fall is when the Republican Party typically unrolls its cynically manipulated election-clinching "October Surprise." In Hollywood terms, fall is when the studios unveil their self-consciously artistic Oscar hopefuls. Might not the Hollywood surprises be political as well? This summer, movies ranging from Fahrenheit 9/11 to The Manchurian Candidate bashed the powers that be with unprecedented vigor and burned up the box office as well. Will this political fervor continue in the months leading up to the election? And will the films paraded for Oscar gold prove deserving of the Academy’s awards?

September

Flying robots invade, New York is in flames — sounds like Tom Ridge’s worst nightmare. Thank goodness it’s 1939, or the 1939 that might have been if wacky movie people had had their way. First-time director Kerry Conran’s Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow (September 17) creates a stunning retro-future reminiscent of Metropolis and the 1936 Things To Come in which Jude Law, Gwyneth Paltrow, Angelina Jolie, and Giovanni Ribisi battle threats to civilization that bear no apparent resemblance to any in the world we know.

Leave it to John Sayles to keep the political heat up. In Silver City (September 17), Chris Cooper plays a George Bush–like candidate for governor of Colorado whose campaign goes off-message when a dead body surfaces. Danny Huston plays the Chinatown-like gumshoe who gets in over his head; Richard Dreyfuss bears an uncanny resemblance to Dick Cheney.

Another agent exceeds his authority in Forest Whitaker’s romantic comedy First Daughter (September 24). Katie Holmes plays the nubile daughter of the prez (Michael Keaton, whom I last remember seeing with a carrot nose as the title hero of Jack Frost); Marc Blucas plays the hunky undercover Secret Service agent assigned to protect her as she enters the treacherous environs of college life. She sticks her tongue out at the press, he falls in love, and you can fill in the rest.

So much for politics. Tennis, anyone? Richard Loncraine (Richard III) plays a mean game of doubles in Wimbledon (September 17) as down-and-out ace Paul Bettany gets his last chance at success on the fabled English lawn and scores love off-court with rising star Kirsten Dunst.

Is Election 2004 among The Forgotten (September 24) yet? Maybe this supernatural thriller directed by Joseph Ruben (The Stepfather, Return to Paradise) might finish the job. Julianne Moore stars as a grieving mother who’s told by her psychiatrist that her son never existed. Or maybe the shrink is referring to weapons of mass destruction? Dominic West, Gary Sinise, and Alfre Woodard also star.

And if you don’t have your Head in the Clouds (September 24) by now, this romantic hanky-panky set during the political turmoil of pre-war Europe should help put things in perspective. They’ll always have Paris, even if the Nazis borrow it for a while. But will the war against fascism disrupt the cozy Left Bank ménage of pre-feminist fashionista Gilda (Charlize Theron), Irish schoolmaster Guy (Theron’s real-life squeeze, Stuart Townsend), and Spanish Civil War vet Mia (Penélope Cruz)? John Duigan (Flirting) directs this hill of beans.

Back on the ground again, join a young, fancy-free, pre-revolutionary Ché Guevara in Diarios do motocicleta/The Motorcycle Diaries (September 24) as he enjoys spring break touring ’50s South America on two wheels with his best pal. Gael García Bernal, who toured Mexico in the steamy Y tu mamá también, plays Ché; Walter Salles, Oscar-nominated Brazilian director of Central Station, adapts the story from Guevara’s own memoirs.

October

Here’s a nasty October surprise. In James Wan’s directorial debut, Saw (October 1), two men (Leigh Whannell and Cary Elwes) wake up to find themselves shackled to a pipe in a subterranean toilet with a very dead body. They piece together — literally — the clues to figure out what happened, and it isn’t pretty. When the film debuted at Sundance, audiences found it scarier than The Blair Witch Project and a lot more disgusting.

A similar surprise is in store for the bottom-feeding fish voiced by Will Smith in Victoria Jenson & Eric Bergeron’s animated comedy Shark Tale (October 1). A loser with dreams of glory, Smith’s floundering hero comes across the dead body of the son of the shark mafia capo (Robert De Niro); when he pretends to be the killer, he finds himself swimming with the sharks and facing the very real possibility of sleeping with the fishes. The all-star cast of voices includes Jack Black, Angelina Jolie, James Gandolfini, Renée Zellweger, and, of course, Martin Scorsese.

There are phony heroes and there are real ones too, as no doubt the opposing presidential campaigns will point out. George Butler’s documentary Going Upriver: The Long War of John Kerry (October 1) hopes to make a case for the Democratic candidate. But no one questions the valor of those heroic first responders to disaster. I’m referring, of course, to the cab drivers celebrated in Taxi (October 8), a rollicking comedy directed by Tim Story of Barbershop fame. SNL’s Jimmy Fallon looks for his breakthrough as a rookie NYC detective who gets tips from a spirited, streetwise hackney played by Queen Latifah about his latest case — a band of Brazilian hookers who rob banks.

Sounds inspiring. And while we’re at it, let’s tip our hat to policemen, EMTs, and firemen as well. Jay Russell, who profiled canine virtue in My Dog Skip, dramatizes the courage and the cutting-up of the firefighters of Ladder 49 (October 8). Joaquin Phoenix stars as a rookie torn between his own family and his band of rubber-booted brothers led by crusty vet John Travolta.

As for the heroism and the effectiveness of those entrusted with protecting us from evildoers, leave it to South Park’s Trey Parker and Matt Stone to tell it like it is in Team America: World Police (October 15). Their super-powered marionette heroes battle the twin horrors of international terrorism and aging celebrities. This could be the closest we’ll get to a radically subversive film this fall.

Look for more traditional team spirit in Friday Night Lights (October 15), in which Billy Bob Thornton stars as the requisite inspirational coach of an underdog but unbowed high-school football team that fights its way to the championship. Based on a true story, it’s directed by Peter Berg, who learned the wages of bad taste with his disastrous black-comic debut, Very Bad Things (Heck, I liked it.)

For those still wondering which way the wind blows, The Weather Man (October 15) probably won’t be much help. Gore Verbinski, fresh from his box-office treasure trove Pirates of the Caribbean, directs this romantic dramedy featuring Nicolas Cage as the title meteorologist whose professional career soars as his personal life disintegrates. He’s faced with an estranged wife (Hope Davis, who else?), a terminal dad (Michael Caine), and pissy teenage kids, so should he stay at his comfortable Windy City gig or move to New York and Good Morning America? Sounds like The Anchorman with children and without laughs.

So far, I haven’t come across any films at which we might look back fondly in 10 years, or even feel good about when Oscar time comes around (though I’m ready to give Best Picture to Team America sight unseen). Then again, I haven’t seen Shall We Dance? (October 15), which the formidable folks at Miramax are pushing hard. A remake of a modest but charming 1996 film from Japanese director Masayuki Suo, this one stars Richard Gere as an uptight businessman who falls in love with a spunky prostitute with a heart of gold played by Julie — excuse me, with a plucky ballroom dance instructor with a zest for life played by Jennifer Lopez. It’s directed by Peter Chelsom, whose work has ranged from the underappreciated (Funny Bones) to the unwatchable (Town & Country).

As for local product Brad Anderson’s The Machinist (October 15), it sounds so unpleasant, it has to win some awards. Christian Bale trimmed down to a svelte 120 pounds to play the title role, a worker in a dystopic unnamed metropolis (actually Barcelona) who can’t sleep. The always worthwhile Jennifer Jason Leigh also stars, and I for one hope that the highly deserving Anderson gets his first big hit since his 1998 debut, Next Stop Wonderland.

Another of America’s few genuine independent filmmakers is David O. Russell, whose Three Kings, which will be re-released this fall, was the only movie to say a discouraging word about the 1991 Gulf War. He plans to start a documentary on the current Iraq War. His latest feature, however, is more philosophical than political, an offbeat comedy along the lines of his earlier Flirting with Disaster. In I ♥ Huckabees (October 15), Dustin Hoffman and Lily Tomlin play a pair of "existential detectives" helping Jude Law, Naomi Watts, and Jason Schwartzman with the questions that really bother a guy — a kind of Nick and Nora Charles for the post-modernist age.

Sounds like the kind of service that would come in handy for the harried sad sacks in Sideways (October 22). Alexander Payne, also on the short list of worthy indie filmmakers, follows up his About Schmidt with another exploration of all-American quiet desperation. Has-been writer Miles (Paul Giamatti), who’s rebounding from a bruising divorce, and washed-up actor Jack (Thomas Haden Church), who’s facing a dubious marriage, take a soul-searching tour of California’s wine (or is that whine?) country.

As if the present day didn’t have its share of self-pitying male losers (and we might add one more come November 2), Charles Shyer, who resurrected Father of the Bride, brings back everyone’s favorite cockney lothario, Alfie (October 22). Jude Law takes on the quintessential 1966 Michael Caine role (you can see Caine dying, as noted above, in The Weather Man) as the guy who gets all the girls and makes everyone unhappy, himself most of all. Sienna Miller, Marisa Tomei, and Susan Sarandon are among the victims.

Looking back even farther at masculine misery is Stage Beauty (October 8) from Richard Eyre, the director of the accomplished bio-pic Iris. As you might recall from Shakespeare in Love, women were banned from the British stage until the 1660s, when Charles II (Rupert Everett) decreed otherwise. That was bad news for Ned (Billy Crudup), a thespian noted for his female roles, but good news for Maria (Claire Danes), an aspiring actress with a glad eye for Ned. Next thing you know, they’ll be letting actors get married. Sounds to me like Costume, Make-Up, and Set Design nominations at the very least.

After all this dysfunctional male angst, it’s refreshing to turn to some uncomplaining female heroism. Like that exhibited by Vera Drake (October 22), model British ’50s mom and pioneering abortionist in the always Oscar-worthy Mike Leigh’s latest kitchen-sink probe of the proletariat. Imelda Staunton, whom you might remember as the Nurse in Shakespeare in Love, has the title role; she’s joined by Leigh regulars Jim Broadbent and Philip Davis.

A heroine in her own right is former vampire slayer Sarah Michelle Gellar. She has her work cut out for her in The Grudge (October 22), Takashi Shimizu’s Hollywood remake of his own Japanese hit thriller Ju-On, where she’s up against a curse that kills not through fear but through rage.

Before we pass that threshold to the next administration, let’s take a moment to remember a late, legendary American who though perhaps lacking in vision was indeed a great communicator, and who deserves to have his face engraved on the $20 bill, if not sculpted on Mount Rushmore. I speak of the inimitable Ray Charles, and as luck would have it, veteran director Taylor Hackford is bringing the blues great to the screen in Ray (October 29). Charles is embodied by Jamie Foxx, an easy early bet for Best Actor.

November

By now, the returns are in (or not, if 2000 is any guide), and we’ll know who our leader will be for the next four years. Will he be a reincarnation of Alexander (November 5), marching victorious through the Middle East and Asia? With its catalogue of assassinations, conspiracies, evil empires, world conquest, and tragic macho violence, the story of the great fourth-century BC Macedonian King is a natural for Oliver Stone. Everyone’s favorite Irish lothario, Colin Farrell, has the title role; Anthony Hopkins, Angelina Jolie, and Val Kilmer also star. But who will play Bucephalus?

Speaking of reincarnation: do you ever get the sense that some kind of psychic communication permeates the Hollywood ozone, accounting for our frequent sense of déjà vu? Like, maybe Michelle Pfeiffer’s dead, perhaps imaginary son in The Forgotten might be in contact with Nicole Kidman’s mystery child in Birth (November 5) by way of Kidman’s dead children in The Others or even creepy little Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense? I have no idea either. In Birth, Kidman plays a widow who’s about to remarry (Danny Huston) when she meets a 10-year-old boy who claims to be the reincarnation of her deceased husband. It would seem that she and director Jonathan Glazer (Sexy Beast) have a lot of explaining to do.

Let’s get back to earth and this election thing. Will our commander in chief be more along the lines of the eponymous patriarch of The Incredibles (November 5), the new animated adventure for adults of all ages from Brad Bird, whose The Iron Giant was an underrated treat a few years back? Here, trial lawyers have driven superheroes underground with frivolous lawsuits. Among those hiding are Mr. Incredible (Craig T. Nelson), his wife, Elastigirl (Holly Hunter), and their super-powered three children. That is, until a trickster lures the gullible Mr. I to play the hero again and bogs him down in a futile ground war in the Middle East.

Okay, I made that last part up. Anyway, if I had my druthers, I’d prefer a chief executive along the lines of Kinsey (November 12). Alfred Kinsey was the legendary sex researcher whose groundbreaking 1948 classic Sexual Behavior in the Human Male no doubt cleared the way for Bill Clinton to get a blow job in the Oval Office. Bill Condon (Gods and Monsters) directs this bio-pic (Kinsey is also the topic of T.C. Boyle’s upcoming novel The Inner Circle), Liam Neeson has the title role, Laura Linney plays his wife, and Chris O’Donnell and Ian McKellen appear, perhaps, as failed experiments.

Of course, around this time, many of you will be attending the Boston Jewish Film Festival (November 3 through 10), which every year has proved not only one of the classiest and most rewarding cinematic events on the local calendar but also a tried-and-true way of Surviving Christmas (November 12) and the onslaught of holiday movies. Nonetheless, you might still check out the aforementioned Mike Mitchell (Deuce Bigalow: Male Gigolo) comedy to see whether Ben Affleck’s acting career is in total collapse and he will, in fact, be running for the Senate seat vacated by President John Kerry. Here, he (Affleck, not Kerry) plays a ruthless record executive (not unlike Bill Murray in Scrooged) who must hire a family to enjoy the title holiday. Christina Applegate, James Gandolfini, and Catherine O’Hara sing carols.

By this time, you might be asking yourself: where are all the chick flicks? Such a fall full of male pathology I can’t remember. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason (November 19) arrives not a moment too soon. Bridget Jones’s Diary came out in 2001, but if it seems like only four weeks since the last time we saw Renée Zellweger as Helen Fielding’s bestselling desperate single, it’s because that’s where Beeban Kidron’s sequel picks up the tale. Bridget discovers that her new beau (Colin Firth) is a conservative, and things go downhill from there. No doubt Hugh Grant will contribute a knowing smirk or two.

By this time, you might also be asking yourself: what happened to the Bill of Rights, the Constitution, and the Declaration of Independence? Jon Turteltaub’s National Treasure (November 19) accounts for the last of these, and all along, we learn, it’s been a map showing where the Founding Fathers hid their war chest during the Revolution! Nicolas Cage and Sean Bean are fortune hunters tracking the treasure down. And you thought the Declaration of Independence was a statement of the ideals on which this country was founded! Well, at least it’s worth more than the parchment it’s printed on.