The year of looking forward In Rhode Island, everything present in 2005 was merely prelude to a hot election season BY IAN DONNIS

Six months ago, when the thoughts of most Rhode Islanders were starting to drift toward the casual pursuits of summer, Governor Donald L. Carcieri already proved himself to be well-prepared for the distant campaign season of 2006. The readiness of this Republican political neophyte-turned-skilled politician, as he revealed himself during a State House interview, reflects how Rhode Island’s present in 2005 was often merely prologue.

Although GOP governors have been the norm in the state for most of the last 20 years, Carcieri — who knows that his legacy will be but a blip if he gets tossed after one term — has fused a more muscular style with a keen grasp of political symbols. Labor and other Democratic interests, of course, can be counted on to aggressively target him, while uniting behind Lieutenant Governor Charles Fogarty, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

At first blush, Carcieri’s support for Republican gains in the General Assembly in 2004 seemed to amount to little. Even with very modest gains, though, the governor, by supporting dissident Democrats challenging Speaker William J. Murphy, was able to complicate life this year for the man holding what is commonly regarded as the state’s more powerful political post. Taking this into account, the legislative races of 2006, when Republicans will again try to bolster their marginal numbers, carry heightened significance.

Like Carcieri, Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey is an affluent conservative opposed to abortion rights who casts himself as a populist challenging government boondoggles. While there remains a long way to go in putting the state on a more stable financial footing, both men are touted by their supporters as leaders of a new political insurgency. So beyond the outcome of individual races, the relative amount of support for reelecting the governor and increasing GOP legislative ranks, as well as the fate of Laffey’s high-stakes primary challenge to US Senator Lincoln Chafee, will hint whether Rhode Islanders’ traditional political leanings are truly realigning.

With the passage of time since the February 2003 Station nightclub fire in West Warwick, which claimed 100 lives and led to the remaking of the state’s fire-safety laws, the disaster has increasingly faded from view. The first trial related to the case, that of Great White tour manager Dan Biechele (who, like club owners Jeffrey and Michael Derderian, faces 200 counts of involuntary manslaughter), is scheduled to start in May, however, and it will refocus public attention on how and why the devastating conflagration occurred. In one indication of the level of interest, Court TV has sought permission to televise the trial.

As a small idiosyncratic place, Rhode Island has the ability to surprise, as when the socially conservative legislature offered strong support this year for legalizing medical marijuana. (The House is expected to decide whether to override the governor’s veto before formally launching its new session in January.)

Development boomed in Providence, and Rhode Island’s old regional backwater status continued to fade, as plans moved forward for a series of high-end condos and other deluxe downtown projects. Meanwhile, recognition grew of a housing crisis in Rhode Island, as a new coalition, HousingWorksRI, focused more mainstream attention on the subject.

At other times in 2005, it was too easy to be inured as life spun on amid the usual routines, at least until the cost of our inattention became increasingly blunt.

The lack of a draft meant that the war in Iraq continued with more loss of life and little public opposition, at least until the climbing death toll, repeated reports of US-abetted torture, multiple federal assaults on civil liberties, and Cindy Sheehan’s protests near George W. Bush’s Texas residence tipped the scales of US opinion.

We could abide presidential haplessness, at least until the lax response to Hurricane Katrina (some of whose evacuees wound up in Rhode Island) and rising gas prices, along with the war, combined to shake us from our lethargy. The skyrocketing cost of home heating in winter proved a rude awakening for many, even if they were fortunate enough to have a choice.

THE COMING FIREWORKS

The cumatta controversy sparked by Democratic consultant Guy Dufault’s unintended televised airing of unsubstantiated allegations of extra-marital affairs involving Carcieri was the quintessential Rhode Island story of the year. Although the original broadcast was likely seen just by a small audience, the governor, bristling with outrage, jumped on his enemy’s gaffe, using a State House news conference two days later to demolish Dufault and make some overly broad assertions about his other opponents. The unexpected windfall, in a year when Carcieri’s wife, Sue, went through heart bypass surgery, marked a prelude to the climax of this native son’s political career in the make-or-break year of 2006.

As 2005 began, state government underwent a series of personnel changes, and Democrats began sharpening an argument that the governor had accomplished little during his time in office. Carcieri went on, though, to score a subsequent string of political victories — building support for pension reform, initiating health-care premium co-pays by state employees, preventing the recognition as state employees of private day-care workers, and blocking (again) a Narragansett Indian-Harrah’s Entertainment casino. At the same time, the administration’s shortcomings (quietly acting to expand the number of video slots in Newport, part of a massive expansion of gambling, for example) seemed unlikely to register, at least for now, in the most positive public sentiment toward the grandfatherly governor.

On the surface, the gubernatorial contest might seem like a mismatch, considering Fogarty’s charisma-challenged image and the desire of some voters for a check against legislative Democrats. Still, mid-year polling showed the Democrat well within striking distance, and although Fogarty has mostly kept his powder dry, the election contest will surely heat up in earnest after the New Year.

In the US Senate race, many observers will be curious to see whether Laffey, after emerging from obscurity, flames out or scales new heights. In the end, the affection held by many Rhode Islanders toward Chafee, because of his candor, family name, and independent brand of moderate Republicanism, may prove a trump card. On the Democratic side, the GOP primary will heavily influence the outlook facing Sheldon Whitehouse or Matt Brown.

Supporters of voter initiative will tout the concept in 2006 as an equalizer against an overly self-interested legislature. They might do well to put some of their energy behind the Clean Elections model, an effort meant to spark greater political participation by diminishing the influence of money in campaigns, which has had a positive effect in Arizona and Maine.

Will 2006 prove to be a political watershed in Rhode Island or a reaffirmation of something closer to the status quo? Look for the answers to slowly start emerging.

Ian Donnis can be reached at idonnis[a]phx.com.