The real world Our prognosticator’s 2003-04 pigskin preview By Chip Young

Forget everything you saw during the New England Patriots’ 4-0 preseason. Now the fun really begins.

Well, perhaps the fun actually begins in the third game of the season. If I was New England head coach Bill Belichick, I would certainly not want to start my season playing the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles on the road. Sports Illustrated thinks enough of the Bills to pick them to win the American Football Conference East title, and there is that little matter about some guy named Bledsoe playing quarterback for Buffalo. But there are other prognosticators who see Buffalo finishing fourth (and last) in the AFC East, with Miami winning the division. On the positive side, most non-New England diehards have the Patriots finishing second behind whomever. This division may provide the most cutthroat race to the postseason in the NFL. (Don’t forget — the N.Y. Jets won the AFC East last year. But with QB Chad Pennington breaking his wrist in preseason, leaving 39-year-old Vinny Testaverde — no rocket scientist — to fill in for the first 9-12 weeks, nobody is even giving them a chance this year.)

Meanwhile, the Eagles are, overall, the most winning team in the National Football League since the beginning of the 2000 season, and favorites for the National Football Conference East title. Beating them in the preseason is just likely to fuel their desire for when the games count. Forget about the Pats topping the Iggles in preseason as a credible measure of the teams’ abilities. That is why they are called exhibition games. It means the talent on exhibit contains players who are eventual cuts and second-stringers, as teams protect their most valued talents from injury. Philadelphia is a team full of heavy hitters that want desperately to erase their NFC championship game loss to the eventual Super Bowl champs, Tampa Bay. Kicking the ass of the 2001 Soopah Doopah titlists would be a wonderful way to get out of the blocks early on their quest.

Speaking of tough guys, having a bunch of hard men was the Patriots’ strength when they beat St. Louis for the NFL crown in New Orleans. They took names and kicked ass throughout the game, on both offense and defense. Ask both Oakland and Pittsburgh, who they beat en route to the Big Easy, about which team they would have chosen to avoid to improve their chances, if not their physical health.

Then came the letdown in 2002, which led to New England missing the playoffs, and embarrassment to all concerned in Foxboro. Big-name defensive stars like cornerback Ty Law, safety Lawyer Milloy, and linebacker Willie McGinest all caught some sideways glances and questions about their heart and performance. They are certainly aware of that, which should be a wakeup call if one was ever needed for a pro with pride. (As the Phoenix went to press, Belichick announced the team had released Milloy. The reason given was his huge paycheck and how it adversely affected the salary cap, but you can bet if Milloy had a better 2002 and preseason he would still be in a Pats uniform. This could be a master stroke or a bonehead move, time will tell. But if Milloy signs with Buffalo, as has been suggested, the intensity level of Sunday’s game against the Bills just went off the charts.) Belichick took it a couple of steps farther, for those players who do need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. The Pats brought in standout linebacker Rosevelt Colvin from the Chicago Bears, a crusher at linebacker who can teach even players like Ted Johnson and Tedy Bruschi, never mind McGinest, a few lessons about chewing nails. Also imported, after his release the San Diego Chargers, was safety Rodney Harrison, a psycho-killer at safety who started a number of fights in training camp just to let a few people know he was out there. The Patriots don’t need Milloy telling the media how good he is. They need Harrison standing over a few opposing wide receivers and running backs who are trying to find out which direction they go in to stand up after he’s blown them up.

Finally, along the same lines, Belichick picked up nose tackle Ted Washington in a trade with Chicago. Yes, he’s 325-plus and 6’5," and a former Pro Bowler. Yes, he stuffs the run and breaks down pass pockets. No, he takes no shit. Combined with Colvin and Harrison, look for a quite different attitude on defense this year, and pray that either Asante Samuel or Tyrone Poole can handle the corner opposite Law. Note: If either defensive end Richard Seymour or inside linebacker Roman Phifer can continue to improve, this could be an awesome defense.

On the offensive side, one has to be encouraged by the way that the Pats starters jumpstarted the team in nearly all their preseason games. (OK, we said ignore the preseason, but those potent first and second quarters that the first unit appeared in, versus starting defenses, are not to be totally dismissed.) The best sign of how seriously opposing teams will take New England’s ability to put points on the board is the way that NFL coaches, scouts, and players sing the praises of QB Tom Brady and his receiving corps, although many knock the size of Brady’s top two wideouts, David Patten and Troy Brown.

Brady was protected fairly well in 2002 by an offensive line that Belichick had to realign more often than a Phil Mickelson putt, but the Pats’ running game was almost laughable. The coach defends the talent of both Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk, but both were up and down last year — not necessarily the fault of the line. The problem there is that if no one takes your ability to gain yardage on the ground seriously, pass rushers will be teeing off on Tom Terrific, which is not a fate you wish for for your franchise’s future. (Can you say "Jim Plunkett," boys and girls?)

This combination of a revivified defense and enormous questions on offense should lead to an interesting season in New England. It will be enhanced not only by the AFC East cannibalism, but the visits to Foxboro of the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys. The Jints still have thousands of fans through the region with the smugness and arrogance of Yankees fans, since they were ruling the scene from Bangor to the Bronx long before the AFL was formed, and were afflicted by the N.Y. Titans-cum-Jets and the Patriots. Giants head coach Jim Fassel blows up good when you beat his team, so we can only hope the Pats can produce a mental short-circuit inside Fassel’s cranium during their visit here. (And again, ignore that man behind the screen talking about the Pats’ preseason 26-6 win over New York.)

Meanwhile, anyone who has a heart hates Dallas, the former bunch of thugs and punks who made the Giants look like shrinking violets during the 1980s and ’90s. Given that the Cowboys now suck, even better that they have former Pats coach Bill Parcells at their helm. The Big Tuna has made a major deal out of playing footsy with the unspeakable owner, Jerry Jones, and there isn’t a Patriots fan worth his Elvis helmet logo who doesn’t want to see Dallas get beaten, but run out of the stadium. And please, Mr. Parcells, don’t forget to wear those Sans-a-Belt khaki pants over your double potbelly. It is so attractive, and they go very well with your newly dyed blond hair.

However, the nut of the season will be in cleaning up in your own division. Miami gained respect after Ricky Williams found a new life in Florida and led the NFL in rushing last year, and the Dolphins acquired linebacker Junior Seau, a perennial All-Pro, from San Diego. Defensive end Jason Taylor is a feared pass rusher, Zach Thomas brings a Ted Johnson-size heart to the middle linebacker position, and even once-lightly regarded QB Jay Fiedler is starting to get props from his opponents. It is also believed that unless the moon shines over Miami this season, head coach Dave Wannstedt is a goner.

The same is being said of Buffalo head coach Gregg Williams if his team doesn’t produce. Sure, he has the mighty Drew at QB, but beyond wide receiver Eric Moulds, he might as well be throwing to Arena League players. On defense, the linebacking corps of Jeff Posey, London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes is tough, but there are too many holes throughout the lineup. Still, at home on opening day, with Buffalo’s jacked-up fans behind them, they will be a handful.

That may be one consolation for Patriots fans. Bill Belichick continues to be regarded both as a defensive "genius" — which even he argues is hyperbole — but he has a beautiful mind when it comes to improvising and taking risks. He is in no danger of losing his job, and desperation often leads to mistakes in tough times and tight games, as we may well see Wannstedt and Williams prove as the season progresses.

Ah, hell, if things get too tough for New England, just call on placekicker Adam Vinatieri to rescue our bacon. The Super Bowl hero actually missed a point after a touchdown in the preseason, but you know what that tells us — nothing. Let the real games begin.