Howard Dean’s make-or-break point The next several weeks could be key for the former Vermont governor. Can he press enough flesh and garner enough endorsements to power his New Hampshire momentum? BY DAVID S. BERNSTEIN

HOWARD DEAN’S campaign for president has a five-week window. Sure, the former Vermont governor leads the polls in New Hampshire — a mid-August American Research Group survey found him at 28 percent to Senator John Kerry’s 21 percent and Congressman Dick Gephardt’s 10 percent. And he’s bringing in the bucks — the $7.6 million he raised in the second quarter surpassed the funds raised by each of his Democratic opponents. But in the echo chamber of presidential politics, he faces a potential endorsement gap that could undo him. (Endorsements affect polling results, polling results affect fundraising totals, fundraising totals affect endorsements, and so on.)

In five weeks, Dean’s third-quarter fundraising totals will be made public. If he can keep his momentum going until then (drawing crowds, avoiding scandal, expanding his base, raising his poll numbers), and if the third-quarter fundraising numbers are good — and in the past week, Dean dropped hints that they will be, speculating that he might not accept federal matching campaign funds — then the party establishment will likely accept him as the front-runner. If anything goes wrong, the spiral could head downward in a hurry.

In the meantime, he can’t let the endorsements get away from him. After all, another $7.6 million won’t matter if the party faithful have already pledged their support (along with their crucial phone-bank, sign-holding, and get-out-the-vote efforts) to someone else. Dean’s opponents are asking key party supporters to endorse early, as a way to derail the Dean campaign — and some have done so. Most notably, a handful of national labor organizations endorsed Gephardt this month, including the Paper, Allied-Industrial, Chemical & Energy Workers (PACE) International Union, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, and the United Steelworkers of America. Terry Shumaker, executive director of the National Education Association–New Hampshire (NEA-NH) confirms, "This cycle is starting much earlier than in previous years."

So Dean is frantically trying to deter leading party activists from making any commitments, at least until fundraising reports come out at the end of next month. "We’re saying, give us until September 30th to show that this is a viable candidate," says Joe Trippi, Dean’s campaign manager. "You can support one of these guys tomorrow, or in October, so just give us until September 30."

That was the message last week during Dean’s three-day tour of the Granite State. In between impressively well-attended public events — during which he appeared in shirtsleeves and chatted amiably with ordinary New Hampshirites — Dean slipped on his suit jacket, shut out the press, and met with key groups and individuals representing organized labor, environmentalists, women, gay men and lesbians, African-Americans, and Latinos. His plea? I can win. Give me five more weeks to show you, I can win.

NOT THAT THE populist, insurgent, outsider campaign necessarily wants this aspect of its strategy made known to the public. "Howard is the outsider in this race," says Steve Grossman, a former head of the Democratic National Committee and 2002 Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate who is advising the Dean campaign. "This is more of a people-powered campaign."

But during his quick visit to New Hampshire last week, Dean made sure to meet with state leaders of the NEA, Sierra Club, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, and AFL-CIO, as well as with environmental activist Peter Flood and dozens of state representatives whose endorsements are up for grabs. Meanwhile, he’s lined up another series of meetings with activists, including New Hampshire Stonewall Democrats chair McKim Mitchell, for a return visit to the state on Saturday.

As the country-doctor-turned-politician woos the Politicos Who Matter, big chunks of Dean’s famously grassroots campaign contributions are now paying for constituency-outreach efforts. In something of a coup, Dean’s people hired Andrea Pringle away from former New Zealand ambassador Carol Moseley Braun’s campaign to work with African-American groups. Former Rainbow/PUSH Coalition executive director Joe Johnson has signed on to work with labor, and former Clinton deputy chief of staff Maria Echaveste is pitching Dean to Latinos.

The Dean campaign came late to constituency-building, as Trippi readily admits. "When you have $157,000 in the bank and a staff of seven, it’s hard to have the outreach," he says. "Because of how literally out of it we were, we’ve gotten to a lot of places late, and labor is a great example of that." With money now in hand, Trippi has created constituency-outreach programs both nationally and in New Hampshire to maintain contact with core Democratic Party groups.

Even without the means to reach them, Dean understood the importance of these groups from the start. "He spoke to our delegate assembly in March, and was here before that meeting with our leadership," says Shumaker of the NEA-NH. Other labor groups in the state, plus gay-rights and environmental activists, report the same.

Still, few if any of these constituencies make Dean their first choice. "At AFL-CIO meetings I don’t hear people talking about Dean," says Terry Mackenzie, executive director of the New Hampshire AFL-CIO. Environmental groups didn’t even endorse Dean in his 2000 Vermont gubernatorial campaign, so it’s no surprise that they haven’t lined up behind his presidential bid. And while Dean has a strong pro-choice record, both the National Organization for Women and the National Women’s Political Caucus plan to endorse Mosley Braun this week, according to a report in the Chicago Sun-Times.

More important, opponents have worked hard to tag Dean as too liberal for general consumption. "You have the other candidates trying to demean, disparage, and marginalize Dean and his campaign," says Grossman. "They are trying to paint a picture of Howard Dean as a radical, someone who cannot compete for the mainstream vote." The Democratic Leadership Council, a powerful organization of the moderate wing of the party, began firing away immediately, with founder Al From warning that a Dean candidacy would be a replay of George McGovern in 1972 and Walter Mondale in 1984. Connecticut senator Joseph Lieberman followed with similar comments, and Kerry campaign staffers chimed in as well. Their argument is a simple one: in a general election, Howard Dean can’t win. Therefore he doesn’t deserve your money. Or your endorsement.

In a bit of understatement, Shumaker observes: "It’s clear that the Democratic Party establishment isn’t crazy about him."

WHY WOULD THEY be? Democratic Party activists of all stripes loathe George W. Bush. They desperately want to beat him. The differences among Democratic presidential hopefuls are relatively insignificant. What does matter is electability. "It does no good to support a candidate who agrees with me 100 percent on the issues but can’t get elected," says New Hampshire state representative and reproductive-rights activist Terie Norelli, who is on NHpolitics.com’s "105 list" of key endorsers. "It would be disastrous for Bush to have a second term. The biggest reason I haven’t committed to a Democrat in the primary is that I am so wholeheartedly committed to finding a candidate who can beat Bush."

Kathy Corkery, a lobbyist for the New Hampshire Sierra Club, evinces similar sentiments: "We are a nonpartisan organization. But everybody knows the Sierra Club has a beef with the Bush administration. Regardless of the candidate, the comparison is going to be stark because Bush’s standing with us is so low."

The scramble for electability is heightened by the major candidates’ general agreement on the issues, with the significant exception of Dean’s opposition to the war in Iraq. On other issues held dear by crucial constituencies — affirmative action, reproductive rights, labor, gay rights, the environment, taxes — they all line up pretty much the same.

"He’s certainly saying the right things on labor and environment," says the NH AFL-CIO’s Mackenzie. "Dean’s challenge is to show he’s electable. I asked him point-blank, how are you going to win this thing?" Dean’s response — essentially, that he’ll organize geographically, court independents, and attack George Bush — didn’t entirely convince Mackenzie, but at least demonstrated a realistic plan of action.

Dean hopes to convince these insiders of his electability by gathering big crowds on his current four-day, eight-city "Sleepless Summer" tour, maintaining high poll numbers in key states, and promising that third-quarter fundraising will be even higher than his impressive second-quarter numbers.

"We talked with Dean about the need to have a national presence, to avoid what happened to Gary Hart and Paul Tsongas," says Shumaker, who watched both those candidates win the New Hampshire primary but lose the Democratic nomination. "He’s making a very serious effort to try to be in a position to have a national presence right away after Iowa and New Hampshire." Trippi confirms that the campaign has been busily establishing offices everywhere it can, and Tuesday announced plans for a $1 million television-ad splurge in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Washington State, and Wisconsin.

Dean is also developing stump speeches on an array of topics, to belie the notion that he’s a one-note anti-war candidate. He has been speaking more broadly on foreign policy of late. He has been talking about the economy and job creation. This past Friday he used a campaign-office opening to try out a new environmental speech (which may need more work, as it failed to inspire applause from his own volunteers). On another stop that day, he told a group of workers that he favors "no open trade with countries without the same labor and environmental policies as the US," and that he would stand up to the World Trade Organization on that issue.

To keep poll numbers up, the campaign was the first to roll out radio and television ads in New Hampshire (and in Boston, to reach New Hampshire’s southern residents without encroaching on the state's spending limit). "Maybe the fact that Dean is already running ads is a telltale sign" that the candidate thinks this is a make-or-break time, says Northeastern University political-science professor Bill Mayer. "Normally this is too early for ad spending."

Any slipping poll numbers in the coming weeks could send a signal that Dean is a flash in the pan. "Right now Dean is a high-wire act," says Shumaker. "He could crash to the floor very quickly, or he could be the next coming of Harry Truman."

Potential endorsers are also looking closely at how Dean handles the slings and arrows aimed at him by his fellow candidates. "Can Dean withstand that barrage?" Mackenzie asks.

That barrage, a necessary part of the nomination vetting process, will likely start in earnest right after Labor Day. But criticism will also come from outside the party, hitting at symbolic bull’s-eyes that liberals don’t fully appreciate and that go to the heart of the electability argument. Nearly all Dean’s fellow candidates agree with Dean on gay rights; but every same-sex civil union granted in this country has occurred specifically because of Howard Dean’s signature on the only state bill permitting them. (The process is available in Vermont to any qualified couple, regardless of where they live.) All the Democratic candidates hold similar reproductive-rights views, but Dean has served on the Northern New England Planned Parenthood Board of Directors. People outside the party could use such facts, along with Dean’s anti-war stance, to great effect in painting him as a radical.

As for fundraising, Trippi seems encouraged but not exactly exuberant. "We’re very confident that we’ll be able to achieve a similar amount as Q2," he says. In that break-out second quarter, about half the campaign’s $7.6 million came from big-dollar donors and half from small contributions. Trippi predicts the big-ticket figure will come in at a little over $4 million this time, but doesn’t know if small donations will add up to a figure comparable to the $3.8 million of last time.

That’s a little surprising, given that Dean, who was virtually unknown before, has since appeared on the covers of both Time and Newsweek. Some political writers have predicted Dean will raise between $10 million and $12 million this quarter, and USA Today reported just Monday that his own goal for the quarter is $10.3 million. Dean’s short-lived suggestion that his campaign may consider eschewing federal matching funds only spurred speculation that fundraising must be ahead of expectations. If the money comes up short, the campaign may face stories asking, "Has the spark fizzled?" — a question that in itself could doom the candidate.

Dean’s campaign has to keep all these balls in the air — any crack in the armor could trigger a collapse. But so far, the key players in New Hampshire seem inclined to give him a few weeks to convince them. "We’ll wait until October at least," says Mackenzie of the NH AFL-CIO. Both the state’s Clean Water Action and Sierra Club are also waiting. Ditto the NEA. They won’t wait longer than that, though; Mackenzie predicts a "free-for-all come October."

In the meantime, these groups and individuals are making clear what they want to start hearing from Dean, as well as from other candidates. Shumaker of the NEA-NH says he told Dean in his office last Friday to start talking about what he plans to do about Bush’s No Child Left Behind legislation, which requires uniform standards opposed by the NEA and imposes an unfunded federal mandate on local school districts. Corkery’s Sierra Club has been putting pressure on Dean to make the environment a major campaign issue. Labor groups are doing the same. And they are listening closely to what Dean says.

Ultimately, however, if Dean can maintain and expand upon his current popularity, he may begin to look unstoppable — at which point these traditional Democratic Party supporters will need him as much as he needs them. Time — about five weeks’ worth — will tell.

David S. Bernstein can be reached at dbernstein[a]phx.com