Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind

When the Drudge Report gets involved, it's no longer just about movies. Since A Beautiful Mind emerged as the frontrunner in this year's Oscar race, the muckraking Web site has unloaded the shocking revelations that John Nash, the schizophrenic hero of Ron Howard's sanitized bio-pic, was in fact a homosexual and an anti-Semite. Hardly news flashes, since all you had to do was read the Sylvia Nasar book the movie was allegedly based on to learn that and more. Nonetheless, according to Drudge, the dirt has had its effect. "Why am I voting for this Jew hater?" one shocked Academy member is reported to have remarked.

Of course, you're not voting for a Jew hater, dummy, you're voting for a movie. But that distinction has never been so irrelevant as in this year's Oscar race. It's hard to maintain the illusion that this contest has anything to do with artistic quality when the studios have spent so much money, energy, and duplicity promoting their candidates, smearing opponents, and deluding voters. In short, it's a nasty political campaign, and in lieu of a candidate we have poor John Nash having to drag his paranoid, Nobel-Prize-laureated ass onto 60 Minutes to defend his record. Remember, though, that the last time Drudge tried to take down a political figure (the affair of the stained dress), the result was increased approval ratings for President Clinton. Expect a similar backlash this time.

And there's a principle at stake here as well. The Academy Awards are about the image that Hollywood believes the world should have of Hollywood. Movies are where people go to have their dreams realized and their fears faced and overcome. Hollywood has not just the right but the responsibility to convert the harsh facts of life into palatable fantasy. And so A Beautiful Mind reigns supreme. It will win Best Picture, Best Director for Ron Howard, Best Actor for Russell Crowe, and Best Supporting Actress for Jennifer Connelly.

What of the competition? Moulin Rouge picked up the Producers Guild Award, whose winner has gone on to take the Best Picture Oscar nine times out of 12. This film even evokes the self-congratulatory self-referentiality of the 1998 winner, Shakespeare in Love. But it would be the first musical to win since Oliver! and the first to win without a Best Director or Best Screenplay nomination since Grand Hotel. In other words, it won't win.

Gosford Park, winner of the Screen Actors Guild prize for Best Ensemble cast? Lots of classy British actors, lush costumes and scenery -- and no Merchant Ivory. No real point, either, and Robert Altman just isn't Hollywood's idea of a grand old man. At 77, this might be his last chance to get an Oscar for Best Director or Best Picture, but he won't get either.

In the Bedroom? I don't think the Academy will vote for a film that actually looks better in the bedroom on video than on the big screen. True, it touches the current mood of grief and rage, but it doesn't make you feel good about it.

Halle Berry and Billy Bob Thornton in Monster's Ball

Which leaves The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. An epic of the old school with new-age leanings, it boasts literary pretensions and acting that actually transcends its state-of-the-art special effects. More important, it draws on such au courant themes as self-sacrifice and unity in the battle between good and evil. And despite being a fantasy, it is a far more spiritual film than its supposedly factual competitor.

As such it calls to mind a similar Best Picture face-off of two decades ago between a popular and resonant fantasy and a sanitized and sanctimonious bio-pic: E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (re-released this week in restored and augmented form for its 20th anniversary) versus Gandhi (no talk of any re-release that I've heard of). No doubt Spielberg's messianic spaceman inspired more souls than Richard Attenborough's hagiography of the great Indian leader, but Hollywood could not bring itself to immortalize a film starring a lump of latex.

Neither is it ever likely to. But Ian McKellen will take the Best Supporting Actor award. We can all appreciate a good wizard in these troubled times, especially one who, as he demonstrated at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, can deliver a winning acceptance speech.

It might even be an acceptance speech that derails the Beautiful Mind juggernaut, or rather the physical assault that crowned Crowe's BAFTA awards embarrassment. Does the Academy want to reward that lout and miss a chance to make up for all its neglect of African-Americans by denying Denzel Washington?

Afraid so. Partly because Will Smith in Ali will draw off some of the politically correct voters, and partly because other voters will resent the rhetoric that's demanding a black actor win. Mostly, though, because Washington's role offers the wrong image. He plays a superb villain in Training Day, and true, Anthony Hopkins in The Silence of the Lambs won for playing a similarly charismatic monster. But the last time an African-American won the Best Actor Oscar was Sidney Poitier (who'll receive this year's Lifetime Achievement Award), in 1964. He played a nice guy who helps nuns in Lilies of the Field. And now they're going to give it to someone who plays a crack-smoking, corrupt cop? If you must reward stereotypes, at least keep them flattering.

Which is why I think Halle Berry in Monster's Ball will beat Sissy Spacek for Best Actress, as she did in this year's SAG awards. Which female fantasy is more appealing? A grieving white termagant bent on revenge, or a grieving black babe who sleeps with her oppressor? Some eyebrows may rise at the steamy sex, but if A Beautiful Mind can win, so can a beautiful body.