When House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt addressed the Council on Foreign
Relations and Woodrow Wilson Center June 4 on US foreign policy, including
potential military action against Iraq, there were about 190 people in the
audience. Foreign policy big wigs including Bob Hunter, former ambassador to
NATO, and Admiral William Crowe, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
were in attendance, as were key opinion leaders including Ronald Brownstein of
the Los Angeles Times and the key producers of CNN's Inside
Politics.
But Gephardt was probably concerned only with getting his message across to
one man (who wasn't even there): former Vice President Al Gore.
In his speech, Gepardt came out forcefully in favor of deposing Iraqi dictator
Saddam Hussein whom, he said "survives by repressing his people and feeding on
a cult of victimization." Gephardt's declaration was clear and forceful. "I
stand ready to work with this Adminstration to build an effective policy to
terminate the threat posed by this regime."
The real message of Gephardt's speech was this: I am just as able to handle
foreign policy as any potential candidate in the 2004 race, especially Gore,
and I won't screw this issue up the way Gore did.
The speech has staked out new terrority for Gephardt (he also reiterated the
strong support of Israel's war on terror he previously expressed at a
pro-Israel rally in Washington) and it's one that every potential candidate for
the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004 will have to reckon with.
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, who's certain to run, has been content to
define the war on terrorism as a law enforcement and intelligence effort. The
other likely candidates -- North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Vermont
Governor Howard Dean -- haven't had much to say publicly about President Bush's
campaign. Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, who shares Gephardt's hawkish view
of Iraq, will only run for president if Gore sits out in 2004.
But the speech seemed aimed at Gore, who was one of two Senate Democrats
(Lieberman was the other) to vote in favor of the 1991 Gulf War. Democratic
strategist Hank Sheinkopf called Gephardt's speech "a shot at Gore." "It's a
way to show strength and to make Gore look weak," says Sheinkopf. "It's part of
a strategic imperative to keep Gore out and for Gephardt to move a little bit
to the right." (As vice president, Gore did little to pressure Saddam Hussein
from power. In 1993 he sent a letter to the Iraqi National Congress, a
Democratic Iraqi opposition group, promising US support for the group's work.
But in 1996, Gore said nothing publicly when Hussein ordered Iraqi tanks to
roll into North Iraq in 1996 -- a move that effectively ended the nascent Iraqi
opposition movement.)
The speech is just another sign that Gephardt, who is working furiously to
help the Democrats retake the House in the November elections, is furtively
laying the groundwork for a presidential run. As Gephardt's allies are quick to
point out, he has been to Iowa twice in the last year and to New Hampshire
three times. National Democratic fundraiser Alan Solomont quietly hosted a
group of 30 in his Weston, Massachusetts home for Gephardt in May. Regardless
of how forcefully members of the Massachusetts congressional delegation disavow
the minority leader's interest in the White House -- which many of them did
even off the record at the state Democratic convention last week -- don't
believe it. Gephardt's got his eyes on the country's biggest political job once
again.
His biggest obstacle? Gore. Their records and political careers are similar to
the point that if they both run they almost cancel each other out. Beyond that
-- and this is the part that has political junkies in a tizzy (one described a
primary run with both men in it as "a mudwrestling rematch") -- they just plain
don't like each other.
Right now the notion of a Gephardt presidential run is too much for House
Democrats to consider. They're all focused on regaining the House. At the state
Democratic convention in Worcester last week, Congressman Ed Markey of Malden
-- the dean of the Massachusetts delegation -- distributed a flyer listing the
wartime elections in which the party out of power gains House seats. But if
Gephardt is seen as pushing too hard for a presidential run, it'll weaken his
ability to help the Democrats in the coming November elections.
Officially, Gephardt hasn't said a word indicating that he is running for
president. House aides point reporters to Gephardt's standing comment on the
matter likening his position to that of St. Louis Rams quarterback Kurt Warner.
"If Kurt Warner was on the one yard line, he'd better be be worried about
getting across the one yard line," said Gephardt on an Iowa news program. "And
that really is the way I see it. I want to win the House back."
Luckily for Gephardt, however, many of the things he's doing as part of that
effort -- visiting congressional districts across the country, helping other
Democrats raise money for their campaigns -- are also the things that
presidential candidates need to do. That said, his visits to Iowa and New
Hampshire have included fairly conspicuous examples of presidential activity.
In Iowa, for example, Gephardt helped raise money for a state Senate candidate,
a former United Auto Workers leader who helped Gephardt in the run-up to the
1987 Iowa caucuses. And during his most recent visit to New Hampshire, he
toured Concord with congressional candidate Katrina Swett, fueling presidential
speculation. The Concord Monitor captioned a photo of the two of them
saying, in part, "Gephardt is rumored to be thinking about a run for President
in 2004."
If the Democrats recapture the House in November, Gephardt becomes the House
Speaker, putting him in a great position to raise money nationally. To be sure,
Gephardt, as the congressional Democratic leader, is already in good shape to
raise money, but attaining the Speakership vaults him to another level. This is
something Gephardt never had in 1988 when he was just one of four canidates
from Congress (Gore and senators Gary Hart and Paul Simon were the other three)
seeking the Democratic presidential nomination.
The downside to a Gephardt run is that he'll be running as a member of
Congress. And the public hates Congress. In a recent Harris Poll, 45 percent of
those queried had an unfavorable view of Congressional Democrats. Congress,
because of its very nature, is seen as the partisan center of political
squabbling -- whether it was the impeachment struggle, arguing over taxes, or
fighting over government knowledge of terrorism prior to September 11.
Those familiar with Gephardt's thinking say the Missourian's familiar with
this disadvantage and simply doesn't care. Gephardt, 61, knows that 2004 will
probably be his last chance to run for president. Some in Gephardt's camp are
still smarting over the fact that he didn't run in 1992 -- deciding against it
twice that election cycle. In what is a little known story, Gephardt pondered
running as late as January 1992, when Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton was
faltering in New Hampshire, in part, over the allegations that he had an
extramarital affair with singer Gennifer Flowers. To this day, some Gephardt
allies believe that if the congressman had gotten into the race -- too late to
make it onto the New Hampshire ballot -- he may have been able to overtake
Clinton, whom they point out, did not face the premier Democratic talent that
year. (As beloved as Paul Tsongas -- Clinton's competition in the primary that
year -- is in these parts, the former Massachusetts senator had been out of
politics since 1983 and wasn't a national force.)
But if Gephardt runs, and it looks as if he will, what's to stop the primary
from becoming a rematch of the 1988 slugfest between Gephardt and Gore? While
it's true that Gore has been in near seclusion since the 2000 presidential race
-- making only a handful of public appearances, the most prominent of which was
his fiery speech to the Florida Democratic convention in April, most observers
believe he's running in 2004. After all, even though the Washington
Post's David Broder has noted that Gore's been inaccessible for months, the
winner of the 2000 electino's popular vote hasn't come out and said he's not
running. That's why everyone, from Gephardt to Lieberman to even Kerry is
readying themselves for a candidacy from the former vice president.
That means that we're likely to see the two most influential Democrats of a
generation face off once again in a presidential primary. The question is what
they'll do to each other.
The Gephardt-Gore rivalry is famous. The two men entered Congress in the same
year, 1976, and competed with each other to be considered the first of that
class. In the 1988 presidential Democratic primary, the competition between
Gore and Gephardt became one of the campaign subtexts. Both believed that if
not for the other, they would be able to defeat Governor Michael Dukakis. Gore
had taken on Gephardt's conservative proto-New Democratic image (Gephardt had
been a founder of the Democratic Leadership Council). Both tried to take on the
trappings of patriotism in order to win in the South. Both criticized the other
for flip-flopping on issues. In one presidential debate in Dallas, Gephardt
accused Gore of changing his position on an oil tariff. "Lately, you've been
sounding more like Al Haig than Al Gore," said Gephardt. "That line sounds more
like Richard Nixon than Richard Gephardt," Gore fired back. During the
campaign, Gephardt's campaign manager, Bill Carrick, got into hot water after
making inflammatory statements about Gore's campaign team prior to the Super
Tuesday primary day. "I can't wait. It's blood lust. Let me at him," said
Carrick. "I think they are the phoniest, two-bit bastards that ever came down
the pike, starting with Al Gore."
Tension between the two simmered through much of the 1990s as Gore became
Clinton's front-man in favor of the North American Free Trade Agreement and
Gephardt emerged as the main advocate of organized labor, which opposed NAFTA.
Eventually, largely due to the threat Clinton faced at the hands of
congressional Republicans, the two mended faces. When Gephardt decided against
running for president in 2000, Gore wooed Gephardt, who eventually endorsed
him. In the 2000 election, Gore increasingly relied on support from the AFL-CIO
and began to sound more and more like Gephardt. And when Gore spoke to the
delegates at the Florida convention in April, he did so in full Gephardt-esque
populist fashion."I've had it. America's economy is suffering unnecessarily,"
said Gore. "Important American values are being trampled. Special interests are
calling the shots." Now, in the most recent reversal, it is Gephardt becoming
the hawk on Iraq and Gore who is silent on it.
Democratic observers are of two minds about the prospects of a final
Gore-Gephardt match-up. On the one hand, they look forward to it as the
ultimate political theater. "It certainly would be a clash of titans in a way,"
says one former Gephardt operative. But they also worry that a Gore-Gephardt
rematch would only weaken the Democrats. "I don't think Karl Rove could imagine
a better scenario than those two guys squaring off," the Gephardt ally adds,
referring to Bush's political strategist.
Conventional wisdom holds that Gephardt would be easy grist for Democratic
opponents and the Republican attack machine. Indeed, Mickey Edwards, a former
Republican congressman from Oklahoma, who entered Congress with both men, and
professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, is quick to
attack Gephardt for flip-flopping. "The funny thing about Dick Gephardt is that
he has been all over the place in terms of his philosophy," says Edwards. "When
I first met him he was considered a very moderate centrist Democrat and then he
moved very much to the left."
Yet Gephardt, in many ways, is much better positioned to run for president
than Gore is. Gephardt doesn't have the baggage of a recent presidential run.
(His 1988 effort is, by now, considered ancient history in the annals of
presidential politics.) Plus, he is well-positioned to run what is the only
kind of Democratic candidacy that can win in 2004: as a hawk on foreign policy
and a lefty on economic issues, where Bush can be exploited.
"He has the potential to run as an economic populist, social moderate and
foreign policy hawk, which is the best platform for a Democrat to run on in
2004," says Marshall Wittmann, a political analysts at the conservative-leaning
Hudson Institute. "If Gore runs, Lieberman will not, which leaves the Scoop
Jackson territory to Gephardt."
And as far as the domestic left is concerned, Gephardt still holds popularity.
"I think he'd be a great president. I think Dick Gephardt is one of the
brightest people in Congress," says Barry Bluestone, the director of the Center
for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University in Boston, and a
former Gephardt advisor. "I'm impressed with his understanding of the issues
and broad progressive outlook. To me, we would have a broad debate about the
major issues of the day -- Social Security, health care, international trade
and international policy."
It's possible that the newcomers to presidential politics might rightly view
that Gore and Gephardt will cancel each other out. But the damage they do while
battling it out could ruin the party's chances in 2004.
Seth Gitell can be reached at sgitell[a]phx.com.
Issue Date: June 14 - 20, 2002
